Wednesday, June 29, 2005
Until then, go to http://www.live8live.com/ and see what it's all about for yourself.
Tuesday, June 28, 2005
Missouri - Leans Republican
Senator Jim Talent was elected in 2002 in a special election, defeating Senator Jean Carnahan (D). His 2002 election was extremel close, and 2006 looks like it will be no different. State Senator Chuck Graham, a wheelchair-bound advocate for stem cell research, ahs recently counted himself out for the race, leaving State Auditor and 2004 Governor nominee Claire McCaskill with a clear shot if she runs. If she doesn't, look for former Governor Roger Wilson or former Lt. Governor Joe Maxwell to explore runs.
Montana - Leans Republican
Don't let President Bush's 2004 showing fool you; Montana is becoming an increasinly moderate populist state, electing Governor Brian Schweitzer in 2004. Senator Conrad Burns has been involved in several scandals and is polling only 50% against a State Senator. If the aforementioned State Senator, Jon Tester, a farmer from Big Sandy, Montana (popluation 703), receives the nomination, this race could get close.
Nebraska - Leans Democrat
Nebraska is one of the most conservative states in the nation, yet has a democratic incumbent Senator? Furthermore, who will be re-elected in 2006? Yes, to both questions. That incumbent is Sen. Ben Nelson (who is more republican-like than many republicans), and, without Governor Dave Heineman, Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns, or Congressman Tom Osborne running, Senator Nelson seems to be safe.
Nevada - Solid Republican
Sadly, Senator John Ensign, who in his six years in the senate hasn't distinguished himself whatsoever, will be re-elected safely to a second term in 2006. Enough said.
New Jersey - Open - Likely Democrat
Senator Jon S. Corzine is running for Governor in the 2005 election, and with his win all but assured, the question turns to who will replace him. I'll tell you about the Republicans first, because its not complicated at all. State Senator Tom Kean, Jr., son of the immensly popular former Governor and 9/11 Chairman, Tom Kean, is the GOP's likely nominee. If Corzine wins, he must appoint a replacement to his own vacant seat. The current frontrunners are Congressmen Frank Pallone, Rob Andrews, Rush Holt, and Bob Menendez. While Pallone is already running a campaign, Menendez is the odds-on favorite for the nomination. But he has a high leadership position in the House, so if I were him, I would bide my time in Congress in hopes of eventually becoming Leader or Whip of the House Democrats. With Menendez possibly out of the running, all eyes would turn to Rush Holt (Holt's father, Rush Holt, Sr., was elected to the U.S. Senate from West Virginia at age 29). And of course there's a chance Corzine could appoint a placeholder and allow the democrats to duke it out.
New Mexico - Solid Democrat
Senator Jeff Bingaman is running for his 5th term, and, so far, no major Republicans have rose to challenge him. Former State Senator Tom Benavides has said he will run, but will just be token opposition. Bingaman should receive at least 75%.
New York - Solid Democrat
As much as Republicans would love Senator Hillary Clinton to be in trouble during her re-election campaign, there's no chance of her defeat. The Republicans have currently fielded several minor candidates, including Bill Brenner, Adam Brecht, Antonia Novello, Jeanine Pirro, Yonkers Mayor John Spencer, and Nixon Son-In-Law Edward F. Cox. Cox or Spencer would be considered the party frontrunners for the nomination.
North Dakota - Leans Democrat
Governor John Hoeven is currently the only republican who could give a serious challenge to Senator Kent Conrad. Hoeven hasn't made an announcement, but, in anticipation that he does, this will be tilted just a small bit to the Democrat. If he doesn't run, it will certainly be upgraded to Solid Democrat.
Ohio - Leans Republican
This race should be alot less of a race, considering Senator Mike DeWine is running for a 3rd term, if it hadn't been for DeWine's involvement in "Coingate" and his compromise as a member of the "Gang of 14" Senators who found a middle way in the Judicial battle in the Senate. Now, DeWine is being attacked from all sides. The right-wing would like former Congressman John Kasich, an original architect of the 1994 Republican Revolution, to run. The Democrats are trying to draft Congressmen Sherrod Brown or Tim Ryan. And, depending on the primary elections for Governor, possibly Congressman Ted Strickland or Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman. If DeWine survives the primary fight, he will be weakened, but favored. If Kasich wins, it will move to the toss-up category.
Pennsylvania - Lean Democrat
Senator Rick Santorum is both a leader of the Radical Right, and a major target of the left. Santorum is the only incumbent who consistently polls below his democratic challenger, State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr., and will need a huge turnout of moderates in Philadelphia to defeat Casey. Look for the Christian Coalition, the NRA, and other conservatives to pour millions into the state for Santorum.
Rhode Island - Toss Up
Senator Lincoln Chafee has a reputation as being a little bit slow. But he's definitly bright enough to know that he's got trouble. He's being attacked from both sides. The Democrats are fielding Secretary of State Matt Brown and former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (awesome name, huh?). If that weren't enough, the liberal Chafee is also being attacked on the right by Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey. If Laffey wins the primary (a possibility), then the Democrats are assured of a victory. If Chafee does win, he may be favored 51%-49% over the Democrat, but not by much.
Tennessee - Open - Lean Republican
With failed Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist packing up and going home, the GOP has a primary fight brewing in the Volunteer State. Former Congressmen Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary, Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, and State Senator Beth Harwell. Bryant is considered the frontrunner, but Corker is tailing him very closely. The Democrats are supporting Congressman Harold Ford, Jr., whose campaign has been recently tainted by the arrest of his uncle, State Senator John Ford (D). Look for this to get interesting if its a Bryant v. Ford race, but if Corker wins, Ford may as well pack up and go back to Memphis.
Texas - Solid Republican
Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison will be re-elected in 2006. Next question, please.
Utah - Solid Republican
Senator Orrin Hatch is one of a select group of "Senators For Life", and the 2006 elections won't change that.
Vermont - Open - Solid Independent
Senator Jim Jeffords is retiring due to ill health (he has been seen recently on the Senate floor in a wheelchair, and is rumored to also have Alzheimer's disease), and the state's only congressman, Bernie Sanders, a self-avowed Socialist Independent who caucuses with the Democrats, will win this seat.
Virginia - Likely Republican
As much as I wish that my homestate would have a real race next year, that seems unlikely at this point. Senator George Allen had been polling below Governor Mark Warner, but with Warner likely running for President in 2008 (as will Allen), he will forego a Senate race. With Warner out, all eyes turn to former Lt. Governor Don Beyer, the 1997 Candidate for Governor, as a possible challenger to Allen. Beyer is wealthy and could finance himself, which is always a good thing.
Washington - Likely Democrat
With 2004 "almost-Governor" Dino Rossi likely opting out of a senate race, Senator Maria Cantwell should be re-elected with little trouble. Former Congressman Rick White could give Cantwell a race however.
West Virginia - Likely Democrat
As much as Republicans would love to unseat the Democratic Party's liberal icon, Senator Robert C. Byrd is completely safe, and will be re-elected at age 89, and serve until he is 95, tieing Strom Thurmond's record of 48 years of service. The only reason its not marked solid is because Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito could possibly make a 15% race out of it.
Wisconsin - Solid Democrat
You can't make something of nothing. Senator Herb Kohl wins again.
Wyoming - Solid Republican
Senator Craig THomas wins. That's all.
And that's it. I'll be working on ratings for the Governor's elections in 2006 very soon, and an extremely detailed critique of the Virginia Governor's race also.
Like my little changes I've made? Terror alert level, Pennacchio for Senate, Jimmy Carter, and so forth. I'll be adding much more, as soon as I can really figure out HTML.
That's all for now. Over and out.
Friday, June 17, 2005
Let me preface this by explaining, if it's "solid" that means that seat ain't gonna change hands. If it's likely, it has a small chance of changing, but only a small chance. Lean means that it'll be close and worth watching. Toss-up means it's a-gonna be a race.
Arizona - Likely Republican
Senator Jon Kyl, running for a 3rd term, isn't in any real trouble, even with ADP Chairman Sam Pedersen preparing to run against him.
California - Solid Democrat
The only person who would have had even a prayer against Senator Dianne Feinstein would have been Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, but with his polls sinking below 40, Feinstein is assured re-election.
Connecticut - Solid Democrat
Senator Joe Lieberman has higher approval ratings with republicans than democrats, but his lowest approval rating over the past six years has been 72%, so Joe is perfectly safe.
Delaware - Solid Democrat
Senator Tom Carper, the most often elected politician in the state, is up for re-election to a 2nd term in 2006, and, without any opposition on the horizon, Carper is safe for another six years.
Florida - Lean Democrat
Senator Bill Nelson is the only statewide elected democrat in an increasingly republican state, and has a high profile Congreswoman challenging him. Bill Nelson should be in huge toruble, except for the fact that the Congresswoman happens to be Katherine Harris, the highly polarizing former Secretary of State of 2000 recount fame. Senator Nelson will have the upper hand because of his incumbeny and the fact that Democrats will all vote against Harris. Then there's always the chance that state house Speaker Allen Bense could challenge Harris in a primary. Look for this to become a national battleground race.
Hawaii - Solid Democrat
Senator Daniel Akaka, running for a 3rd full term, had faced questions about his health and increasing age (82 in 2006), but is now fully running and an absolute lock for re-election.
Indiana - Likely Republican
If Evan Bayh hadn't been elected to the Senate in 1998 and re-elected in 2004, Senator Dick Lugar wouldn't have any worries at all. But Evan Bayh was elected in 1998, and re-elected in 2004, so Senator Dick Lugar does have a few worries. Former Congressman Tim Roemer, who also sat on the high-profile 9/11 Commission, is likely preparing a challenge to the five term incumbent. Watch for President Bush's approval ratings to sink in Indiana. If they do, this race may become interesting.
Maine - Solid Republican
Senator Olympia Snowe is by far the most popular politician in Maine, and will only face token opposition in 2006.
Maryland - Open - Lean Democrat
The last Republican elected to the Senate was 1980, with Senator Charles M. Mathias's narrow re-election. Now Maryland has two democrats, but Senator Paul Sarbanes is retiring after 5 terms. The Republicans have persuaded Lt. Governor Michael Steele to run or their side. Steele, who is black, could have appeal in the traditionaly democrat community. Democrats have a primary battle between long-time Congressman Ben Cardin, and former Congressman and NAACP president Kweisi Mfume. Mfume (who, like Steele is also black) has faced several small scandals which could be to Cardin's advantage. Cardin would be favored over Steele.
Massachusetts - Solid Democrat
Know what's really funny? The way the Republicans hate Senator Ted Kennedy, but they have no chance at all of beating him in 2006. Matter of fact, they have no chance at all of beating him in any year. This seat is a solid holder until Kennedy just wants to leave.
Michigan - Likely Democrat
Senator Debbie Stabenow defeated incumbent republican Senator Spencer Abraham in 2000, and now Jane Abraham, former Senator Abraham's wife, wants revenge. But she'll likely just get the satisfaction of running, because Debbie Stabenow is a safe bet.
Minnesota - Open - Toss Up
Senator Mark Dayton is packing up and going home after only one term, and the Republicans have chosen Congressman Mark Kennedy to run. The democrats have several candidates in their primary, including Amy Klobuchar, Patty Wetterling, and Kelly Doran. If the eventual DFL nominee has enough funds, he or she could hold this seat, but it will be a battleground regardless.
Mississippi - Solid Republican
Senator Trent Lott is a solid lock for re-election. End of story.
Okay, we'll have Missouri-Wyoming in a few days.
Wednesday, June 15, 2005
Saturday, June 11, 2005
Upon getting up this morning and picking up the newspaper, I noticed a front-page story about Mr. Booher, saying that an "anonymous" tip that Booher was teaching creationism in his Biology II class and was ordered by the superintendent to stop. A 500 page folder he made and paid for his self was passed out to students that disproved evolution. He taught us small bits and pieces of it in my Biology I class, and I'm glad that he did. Every student at Battle clammored to be in his class knowing that he would disprove evolution.
A Yahoo search led me to links with quotes concerning Mr. Booher. One woman who probably doesn't have the knowledge Mr. Booher has in one finger in her whole body, said that someone needed to remind him what a biology teacher is supposed to do.
LD Booher is the most brilliant science teacher to ever grace the halls of John S. Battle and some woman in California says he needs his job defined to him? Give me a break.
I urge everyone to e-mail the Washington County school board chair, Mrs. Elizabeth Lowe, at email@example.com and the principle of John S. Battle, Mrs. Judy Wilson (the person who will determine whether Booher is puniched) at firstname.lastname@example.org and urge them not to punish such a fine teacher and fine human being.
I'll be starting a state-by-state handicapping of Senate races in 2006 very soon.
Thursday, June 09, 2005
I didn't go to the Puckett rally today. It was supposed to be at 12 noon. Kristy didn't want to go to it, so I didn't go. Even if I would have wanted to go, It would have helped if I had got up before 11:45. Oh well.
Former Congressman and 9/11 Commission member Tim Roemer (D) is making moves to run for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Senator Richard Lugar (R). A new poll has the race at 41% for Lugar, 39% for Roemer. Lugar has served for almost 30 years, and as much as I would like for this to be a real toss-up as this poll would indicate, I kind of doubt it. Tim Roemer is a good politician and did a great job on the 9/11 Commission, not to mention he would be a great Senator, but if he wants a seat, perhaps he should wait until 2008 and hope Evan Bayh gets a spot on the national ticket.
The right to lose. That is exactly what the former mayof of Windsor, NJ, and 2002 Senate nominee Doug Forrester won in the GOP primary for Governor. He will face Senator Jon S. Corzine (D) in the general primary in November. Corzine is heavily favored to win, and the only questions now are: 1) How big will Forrester lose by? and 2) Who will Corzine appoint to his open seat in the Senate?
CALL FOR ADVERTISEMENTS
As folks can see, my website is kind of--shall we say--bland? Yes, we shall. I'm open to posting graphics and links to any (democrat) campaign or liberal cause. I've changed my comments section so that anyone can leave comments, so if you want to place graphics and links, let me know.
Tuesday, June 07, 2005
Katherine Harris--the former Secretary of State and Congresswoman who on her own keeps the mascara business going--has announced she will be running for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Senator Bill Nelson (D). Nelson was elected in the open-seat race in 2000, defeating Congressman Bill McCollum (R). Nelson is now the only statewide elected Democrat, which would be considered a problem. He is likely at the top of the GOP's hitlist, but with Katherine Harris it will be difficult. She is such a polarizing figure due to her role in the 2000 recount that ALL democrats will vote for Nelson, MOST blacks who felt disenfranchised in 2000 will vote for Nelson, and MANY undecideds who don't want a lockstep conservative will vote for the moderate Nelson. Senator Nelson will win this one by at least 7% easily.
I'd like to make an endorsement in the 1st legislative district House of Delegates race in Scott County. I believe Rex McCarty is a hardworking man. He comes from a bluecollar family and will be a great voice for the district. And, if he defeats Terry Kilgore (Jerry Kilgore's twin brother), it will send a real message to Jerry. Maybe after November 8th, Jerry and Terry can set up a political consulting firm and hire Scott Howell. I'm sure George Allen will be needing some help in 2008.
Jason, the Chap Petersen guy, gave me a whole lot of stuff; Several signs, lapel stickers, and more brochures than I care to count. I can tell Petersen is serious about winning votes where ever he can. Janette Puckett (Phillip Puckett's wife) was also there. She did give a nice biographical speech of her husband, and I maintain that Puckett is a great guy and my second choice.
The Puckett event that I'll still be attending is actually Wednesday. And it costs six dollars. I assume it may be a tad bit akward seeing as how I'm a big Petersen supporter down here, but I'll still be attending. Hoping Kristy does too.
Overall, this was an interesting night and informative and helpful. I say on to Primary Day, then on to the general election, then on to victory!
Nationals are FIRST IN THEIR DISTRICT. First Washington team to do so since 1933. Can I get a heck yeah?
Monday, June 06, 2005
Also, we'll be attending Phillip Puckett's rally tomorrow; I went to the Culinary school to look over the parking situation (parking downtown is a real pain), and I noticed that there is not really any space out front, and only a small lot in back. We'll probably end up parking at the Episcopal Church on the top of the hill behind it. If they don't tow my car, I'll know episcopalians are wonderful people. (I'm a Baptist right now, and my church has come very near to "excommunicating" members who they know to be liberal, and I've seriously been considering switching to the Episcopal Church.)
I'll be updating later (late tonight or tomorrow morning) about how the meeting went, and after that about how Senator Puckett's rally goes.
WEST VIRGINIA NEWS
The last time eight-term incumbent Senator Robert C. Byrd (D) faced real opposition was 1982, when the GOP convinced the only republican member of the House from WV, Cleveland Benedict from the 2nd district, to challenge Senator Byrd. Byrd trounced benedict with 68% of the vote to Benedict's 31%. Is history preparing to repeat itself? Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R), who represents the same district that Cleve benedict represented, is gearing up to challenge Robert Byrd. Capito is the daughter of former Governor Arch A. Moore, the scandal-ridden former state executive who actually did jail time for his crimes. Byrd will be 89 at the time of the election, but the people of West Virginia basically worship at the altar of Bobby Byrd. From personal experience, no matter who you ask, everyone will tell you about the good things Byrd has done for their town. A reminder: When Robert Byrd was first elected to Congress from the 3rd district in 1948, there were NO paved roads in the entire state. Now the West Virginia Turnpike, a highly maintained toll road interstate, is the largest source of revenue in the state. If Capito runs, she will have to forego running for re election to the House, and it will likely be a Democrat pickup. I say she should go for it--we could use another seat in Congress.
Friday, June 03, 2005
The candidate who appears likely to win the primary for Lt. Governor is State Delegate J. Chapman "Chap" Petersen of Fairfax. Petersen has raised over a half-million dollars and has a great energetic campaign style. His campaign people have been trying their best to recruit me for weeks, and I've finally succumbed.
I do wish Phillip Puckett would win the primary, and I do think he would be the most electable, and I do think that he is the most "governor-like" of the four candidates, but he just hasn't run much of a statewide campaign. He's completely ignoring southside and northern Virginia, and you really can't do that.
Chap's western campaign manager, a guy by the name of Jason, will be at the meeting on the 6th and will give me and Kristy marching orders for primary day. We will likely be handing out information and brochures around voting places, which is always fun.
This is exciting; last time I did something like this, it was for the wrong side.
On Tuesday the 7th, I'll be attending a rally for Phillip Puckett here in Bristol (Yeah, I know...playing both sides of the game. So sue me). Phil is a great person and I wish him the best of luck on the 14th.
That's all for now. Oh, and did I mention, Nationals WIN AGAIN!
Wednesday, June 01, 2005
Lt. Governor and Democratic candidate for Governor, Tim Kaine was in Bristol last night. He layed out a six point plan for Southwest Virginia. I've typed them below:
Support infrastructure improvements in transportation, communication and technology to better link Southwest Virginia to the rest of the commonwealth.
Support the creation of public wireless Internet access areas.
Support the location of the Virginia Information Technology Agency’s (VITA) backup data center in Southwest Virginia.
Invest further resources in UVa-Wise.
Support programs like Virginia’s Economic Bridge that links workers in Southwest Virginia with Northern Virginia employers through technology.
Promote natural and scenic assets, like Breaks Interstate Park and rails-to-trails projects, to attract tourism.
Polls indicate that Tim Kaine is doing best in Southwest Virginia, and he's been heavily courting it. He was here in Bristol yesterday, in Jonesville today, and swinging up a little west of Roanoke later. I think if Kaine wins a majority of the counties here (i.e. Russell, Wise, Dickenson, Buchanan), he will defeat Jerry Kilgore.
Okay, I'm gonna go sleep a while now.
The best kept secret in a world where secrets don't last very long; "Deep Throat," the man who tipped off news team Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein on President Nixon's involvement in the Watergate brake-in and cover up, kept his identity secret for over 30 years. Was it Alexander Haig? Henry Kissinger? George H.W. Bush? Pat Buchanan? Diane Sawyer? David Gergen? L. Patrick Gray? Someone in the White House, CIA, or FBI? Well, today, the world knows the answer. The number 2 man in the FBI under J. Edgar Hoover, W. Mark Felt. The original clues to Deep Throat's identity was that he was a heavy smoker, liked Scotch, and was a die-hard gossip. Felt, now 91 and living in California, announced today that he was indeed "Throat." It was today confirmed by Bob Woodward. Many (including yours truly) consider Felt a hero worthy of inclusion in a "Profiles in Courage" reprint. It takes a whole lot of guts to take down the president.
I FEEL A LIBERAL RANT COMING ON
Okay, let's play a game. Ready? Okay, tell me what all these Republicans have in common.
Senator John McCain (AZ)
Senator Lincoln Chafee (RI)
Senator Mike DeWine (OH)
Senator John Warner (VA)
Senator Olympia Snowe (ME)
Senator Susan Collins (ME)
Fmr. Congressman Doug Bereuter (NE)
Fmr. Congressman Bob Barr (GA)
Senator Arlen Specter (PA)
Senator George Voinovich (OH)
Senator John Thune (SD)
Congressman Walter Jones (NC)
Congressman Jimmy Duncan (TN)
Congressman Mike Castle (DE)
Okay, anybody know the answer?
All of these Republicans have voiced opposition to one thing or another that President Bush has supported. Many oppose the unjust war in Iraq, many oppose Bush's right-wing stance on stem cell research. Some oppose Bush nominees who are unfit, some oppose Bush's base closings that will hurt their state's economy. Some oppose Bush's infringment of American Civil Liberties, some oppose Bush's proposal for unneccessary Constitutional amendments. Some oppose Bush's heavy-handed Darth Vader-like Senate enforcer, Bill Frist.
I applaude these republicans and I believe they should continue fighting for the principles of the Old Guard Republicans, many positions now held by current Democrats.
Okay, I've got myself mad at Bush enough for one night, time to watch "Sanford and Son."