Never be afraid to stand with the minority when the minority is right, for the minority which is right will one day be the majority. - William Jennings Bryan

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Boucher v. Carrico? This'll Be Fun!

So, earlier this week, the 9th District GOP held its convention at George Wythe High School up in Wytheville. As was expected, they nominated Delegate Bill Carrico to be the candidate to run against Rick Boucher. They did a short interview with Del. Carrico on WCYB the night of the event, and he didn't seem to have much to say. He focused more on how "Congressman Carrico" has a nice ring to it than on what he would really do to make things different.

From pictures I saw on Commonwealth Conservative, I see that Kevin Triplett was there. Patrick Muldoon lost the race to be 9th CD chair to the guy who Dan Bowling defeated for House of Delegates (Shea Cook).

I read somewhere that several candidates who lost to Boucher were up on the stage too. Let's see, I saw Triplett (2004) in the picture, Muldoon (1996) was there. Who else was there? Michael Osborne (2000)? Joe Barta (1998)? I really doubt John Brown (1988) was there. I assume Bill Wampler (1982) was there. We talked to Jay Katzen a few days ago, and he seems to be living happily in Washington, DC, so I doubt he was there. Who did I miss?

Just for the record, it would seem like a bad idea to me to have the folks Boucher beat running around everywhere. That would just seem to scream "bad luck." I mean, you'd think they would see a pattern forming?

The 9th District Democratic Convention will be June 10th at Marion High School. I'll be there (as a voting delegate from Bristol), and my dad will come with me. Justin is still unsure on whether he'll be able to go or not, but we hope so. I may even try to convince my girlfriend to come, but she's not exactly a Democrat (actually, she's a Republican...but I'm working on that).

I always get a kick out of the 9th District GOP. Every year is "the year." The year Rick Boucher will make a huge mistake and will go down in defeat. And every year the outcome is the same. I doubt Carrico will break Triplett's record (59%-41%), but he'll probably do better than Michael Osborne (70%-30%). Katzen's total (66%-34%) appears more in-line with what Carrico will get, or maybe a little better.

Anybody else have thoughts on Boucher v. Carrico? And, by the way, if you can, fill me in on the rest of Boucher's opponents (1994, 1992, 1990, 1986--1984 was the late Jeff Stafford).


Okay, thanks to the commenters on here and the folks over at RaisingKaine, here's the full list of Boucher challengers, and, for the most part, their percentages:
1982-Congressman Bill Wampler (this one was extremely close. Percentages, anybody?) (49.6%)
1984-Jeff Stafford (Again, anybody got a percentage on this one, which was close, too?) (48%)
1986-No challenger
1988-John C. Brown (37%)
1990-No challenger
1992-L. Garrett Weddle (37%)
1994-Steve Fast (41%)
1996-Patrick Muldoon (Any takers on this number?) (31%)
1998-Joe Barta (What about this one?) (39%)
2000-Michael Osborne (30%)
2002-Jay Katzen (34%)
2004-Kevin Triplett (41%)
2006-Bill Carrico (???)

UPDATE: So, if you average the vote percentages and divide by 10 (the number of opponents Boucher's faced), we can assume that Bill Carrico will get around 39%, although I think Wampler's and Stafford's totals spoiled the true total. So, therefore, if we take Wampler and Stafford out of the equation, the average vote total for a challenger to Rick Boucher is 36%, which sounds much more reasonable for Carrico.


Liberal Pi said...

Let's see here...

The 1994 race was Steve Fast (41%).

1992 was L. Garrett "Gary" Weddle (44%)

1990 was no GOP opponent, but about 2,015 write-in votes...

1986 was unopposed with 602 write-in votes

Liberal Pi said...

Hmm... I'll be lazy about this..

Boucher 76,227 50.4%
Wampler 75,009 49.6%

Boucher 102,466 52.0%
Stafford 94,510 48.0%

Boucher 122,908
Muldoon 58,055
Tom Roberts (Virginia Reform)8,080

Boucher: 65.0%
Muldoon: 30.7%
Roberts: 4.3%

Boucher 87,163 60.92%
Barta 55,918 39.08%

You want a good laugh? A math teacher at my school is named Steve Fast... He's got a farm in Floyd too.. Could it be him?

Neal said...


Thanks for all the vote totals, by the way!

Liberal Pi said...

anytime. The director of our school seems to think he's the same one...