Never be afraid to stand with the minority when the minority is right, for the minority which is right will one day be the majority. - William Jennings Bryan

Monday, February 13, 2006

Senate 2006

Every so often, I'm going to be analyzing which U.S. Senate races we have a chance of picking up in 2006, and this is the "preliminary" start of it. As I think I'm coming down with the flu, I'll just post the list, and insert analysises later.

Arizona - Likely Republican
Senator Jon Kyl (R) - Incumbent
ADP Chairman Jim Pederson (D) - Challenger

California - Solid Democrat
Senator Dianne Feinstein (D) - Incumbent
Dick Mountjoy (R) - Challenger

Connecticut - Solid Democrat
Senator Joe Lieberman (D) - Incumbent
Ned Lamont (D) - Primary Challenger

Delaware - Solid Democrat
Senator Tom Carper (D) - Incumbent
Mike Protack (R) - Challenger

Florida - Likely Democrat
Senator Bill Nelson (D) - Incumbent
Congresswoman Katherine Harris (R) - Challenger

Hawaii - Solid Democrat
Senator Daniel Akaka (D) - Incumbent
Congressman Ed Case (D) - Primary Challenger

Indiana - Solid Republican
Senator Dick Lugar (R) - Incumbent

Maine - Solid Republican
Senator Olympia Snowe (R) - Incumbent
Eric Menhert (D) - Challenger

Maryland - Open - Toss-Up
Congressman Ben Cardin (D)
Former NAACP Chairman Kweisi Mfume (D)
Lt. Governor Michael Steele (R)

Massachusetts - Solid Democrat
Senator Ted Kennedy (D) - Incumbent
Kevin Scott (R) - Challenger

Michigan - Leans Democrat
Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) - Incumbent
Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R) - Challenger

Minnesota - Open - Leans Democrat
Ford Bell (D)
Amy Klobuchar (D)
Congressman Mark Kennedy (R)

Mississippi - Solid Republican
Senator Trent Lott (R) - Incumbent
State Representative Erik Fleming (D) - Challenger

Missouri - Toss-Up
Senator Jim Talent (R) - Incumbent
State Auditor Claire McCaskill (D)

Montana - Toss-Up
Senator Conrad Burns (R) - Incumbent
State Senator Jon Tester (D) - Challenger
State Auditor John Morrison (D) - Challenger

Nebraska - Likely Democrat
Senator Ben Nelson (D) - Incumbent
NRP Chairman David Kramer (R) - Challenger
Peter Ricketts (R) - Challenger

Nevada - Leans Republican
Senator John Ensign (R) - Incumbent
Jack Carter (D) - Challenger

New Jersey - Toss-Up
Senator Robert Menendez (D) - Incumbent
State Senator Tom Kean, Jr. (R) - Challenger

New Mexico - Solid Democrat
Senator Jeff Bingaman (D) - Incumbent
Tom Benavides (R) - Challenger

New York - Solid Democrat
Senator Hillary Clinton (D) - Incumbent
Mayor John Spencer (R) - Challenger

North Dakota - Solid Democrat
Senator Kent Conrad (D) - Incumbent
Mayor John Warford (R) - Challenger

Ohio - Toss-Up
Senator Mike DeWine (R) - Incumbent
Congressman Sherrod Brown (D) - Challenger
Major Paul Hackett (D) - Challenger

Pennsylvania - Lean Democrat
Senator Rick Santorum (R) - Incumbent
State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr (D) - Challenger

Rhode Island - Toss Up
Senator Lincoln Chafee (R) - Incumbent
Mayor Stephen Laffey (R) - Primary Challenger
Secretary of State Matt Brown (D) - Challenger
Sheldon Whitehouse (D) - Challenger

Tennessee - Open - Lean Republican
Ed Bryant (R)
Van Hilleary (R)
Mayor Bob Corker (R)
Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. (D)

Texas - Solid Republican
Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) - Incumbent
Barbara Radnofsky (D) - Challenger

Utah - Solid Republican
Senator Orrin Hatch (R) - Incumbent
Pete Ashdown (D) - Challenger

Vermont - Open - Solid Independent
Congressman Bernie Sanders (I)
Larry Drown (D)
Richard Tarrant (R)

Virginia - Lean Republican
Senator George Allen (R) - Incumbent
Harris Miller (D) - Challenger
Fmr. Navy Secretary James Webb (D) - Challenger

Washington - Likely Democrat
Senator Maria Cantwell (D) - Incumbent
Mike McGavick (R) - Challenger

West Virginia - Solid Democrat
Senator Robert C. Byrd (D) - Incumbent
John Raese (R) - Challenger

Wisconsin - Solid Democrat
Senator Herb Kohl (D) - Incumbent
Robert Lorge (R) - Challenger

Wyoming - Solid Republican
Senator Craig Thomas (R) - Incumbent
Dale Groutage (D) - Challenger
So, what this is basically saying is, we could pick up Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Montana, Missouri, and Ohio. We will need to hold on to New Jersey, Maryland, Vermont, and Minnesota. All we would need to do to take back the Senate is focus on a competitive seat (i.e. Virginia, Tennessee, and Nevada). If all goes our way (which never happens, but we can hope), we could end up with 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans. But all we need is 51, isn't it?



Dannyboy said...

To be honest with you, I'm only focused on one race, here. Good look to the Democrats in the other races, but I'm focused on getting James Webb, or even Harris Miller, into the Senate.

politicapital said...

minnesota is toss-up

other than that you hit it pretty damn well right on the nose

Josh Chernila said...

That's a ton of work. Nice going, Neal.

I'm onboard with Webb for a lot of reasons, here's one that will fit in nicely with this post:

Reason to elect James Webb to the US Senate #8:

Say it with me...

Majority Leader Harry Reid


Anonymous said...


Kennedy R
Klobuchar D
Bell D

The field is not clear on the Dem side in MN and Bell is the clear choice of the candidates listed above. Kennedy is extreme and not in touch with MN values and Klobuchar is fuzzy on the issues.

Go Ford! Bell can win!

Anonymous said...


Kennedy R
Klobuchar D
Bell D

The field is not clear on the Dem side in MN and Bell is the clear choice of the candidates listed above. Kennedy is extreme and not in touch with MN values and Klobuchar is fuzzy on the issues.

Go Ford! Bell can win!

Aldon Hynes said...

For Connecticut, there is a Democratic challenger to Lieberman, Ned Lamont.

This could be an important seat to pick up from a Senator that while he has a D after his name also tends to speak up for the Republicans more than he speaks up for the Democrats.

Neal said...

I've made a couple changes--added Ford Bell in MN, Ned Lamont in CT, and got rid of Hackett in OH.

About Hackett: I never particularly cared for his style, and he seems awfully conceded about things now. "Well, if they don't want me to run for the Senate after I lost a special election for a Congressional seat, screw everybody. I'm not going to run for anything anymore." (Okay, he didn't say that, but thats basically what he meant) You have to have a thick skin in politics...