Never be afraid to stand with the minority when the minority is right, for the minority which is right will one day be the majority. - William Jennings Bryan

Monday, February 06, 2006

They'll Never Be President

All the big-time news outlets (Fox News, CNN, MSNBC) continually discuss Hillary Clinton and John McCain as the two most likely candidates for President in 2008. I say no way. Neither one of them.

It really doesn't do anybody any good to talk about two people who are way too polarizing to ever win, either nationwide or in a primary.

McCain could probably win nationwide. The only problem, however, is that McCain couldn't get through a primary (neither could Rudy Giuliani). Here's why:
  • He'll be 72 in 2008
  • Questions about his medical history (and skin cancer problems) will arise often.
  • He is the "father" (along with Russ Feingold) of campaign finance reform. Look at that two ways--either the corporate folks in the GOP will have a grudge against him, or, if they don't, he may have shot himself in the foot when it would come to paying his bills.
  • He went against President Bush on torture.
  • He would have trouble with the Conservative base, not only because he waged a mean campaign in 2000 against then-Governor Bush (not as mean as Bush's, however), but because he often clashes with his own party, and was even considered as a Vice Presidential nominee for John Kerry.

And, while I would vote for Hillary Clinton in a general election (not in a primary), she could never win nationwide. Here's why:

  • Right-wing commentators like Limbaugh, O'Reilly, and Hannity will be united against her, and do everything in their power to shoot down her chances.
  • We all remember the Universal Healthcare Fiasco of 1993/1994.
  • Her name on a ticket would unify Conservative Christians against not only her campaign, but against the Democratic Party, as questions would arise in churches about "babykilling," and with "Soccer Moms" about why she never left President Clinton (no joke, one of my best friends, God love her, bases her entire opinion of Hillary Clinton on that one question).
  • She would have a hard time with the Liberal base, as she has tried to position herself in the center, for instance: Suggesting in 2005 that the Iraqi insurgency was failing, Waffling on gay marriage/civil unions/FMA, and supporting an amendment banning flag burning.
  • Nobody wants to dust off 8-year-old Bill and Monica/Hillary jokes. It happened very recently in my AP Government class. Believe me, they're still not funny...

I think MSNBC/CNN/Fox should do us all a favor and start discussing the real possiblities: Warner, Edwards, Biden, Bayh, Kerry, Allen, Brownback, Romney, Frist, Pataki, who could have a chance of being their respective parties' nominee, and of being the leader of the free world.



Josh Chernila said...

Good read on things, Neal. I have to agree.

It's early, but right now I see a VA showdown: Warner v. Allen in 2008.

Unless something big derails Allen this year, of course.

waswas said...

No, Hucklebee in Arkansas. Ordained minister who pulled an Al Roker and is sitting governor with no beltway ties and no scandals.

If Allen survives the Webb, at the best VP. If Warer has the top seat on the ticket it's a gimme, but you will have a democratic adminstration in 2009. He wins everything Kerry won plus New Mexico and Virginia, Warner will get 269 electorals. 2006 will determine where Ohio goes. Someone in New Mexico did not work very hard for Kerry, you can figure out why. Some Senators were not to kind to a certain person in New Mexico who I will not name, but that person was reasonably close with last great vice president of the US who carried the state blue last.

Governor Werner could not carry this state as vice president, because whomever gets the top seed(hillary, Feingold, maybe Bayr won't loose VA and god forbid Kerry) will be labeled a liberal and loose the state.

I hope no one thinks they can win Ohio, because they got issues now. I believe we can grab 4 House seats and pick the Senate seat in Ohio but that don't mean anything. Those people have suffered up there and they still vote Republican.